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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2024 earnings has improved 0.80% over the past 60 days. UNP has an impressive earnings surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missing once, the average beat being 1.41%.
Given this backdrop, Let’s see how things have shaped up for UNP this earnings season.
We expect Union Pacific’s performance to have been affected by soft revenues due to weak freight demand. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is currently pegged at $6.06 billion, which indicates a 0.05% rise from the year-ago reported level.
Freight revenues account for the bulk of the top line. We expect freight revenues in the first quarter of 2024 to decrease 2.36% from the fourth-quarter 2023 actuals. Given the soft freight market scenario, weakness in revenues is likely to persist, at least in the near term.
On the flip side, we expect the average fuel cost per gallon to be down 1.9% from the year-ago levels to $3.16. The company’s efforts to cut costs are likely to have boosted the bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter.
What Our Model Says
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for UNP this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here.
Union Pacific currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.61% (the Most Accurate Estimate is currently pegged at $2.54 per share, whereas the Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pegged at $2.53 per share) and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Highlights of Q4
Union Pacific's fourth-quarter 2023 earnings of $2.71 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.56. The bottom line improved 1.5% on a year-over-year basis. Operating revenues of $6.16 billion also beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.1 billion. The top line was flat on a year-over-year basis due toincreased volumes and core pricing gains, offset by reduced fuel surcharge revenues and the business mix.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are a few other stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors might want to consider as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to beat on their first-quarter 2024 earnings.
AAL is scheduled to report first-quarter 2024 earnings on Apr 25. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings has declined 21.74% over the past 60 days. AAL has surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters. The average beat is 119%.
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies (WAB - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.98% and a Zacks Rank #3. WAB is scheduled to report first-quarter 2024 earnings on Apr 24.
WAB has an impressive earnings surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 6.63%.
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Is a Beat in Store for Union Pacific (UNP) in Q1 Earnings?
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2024 results on Apr 25 before market open.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2024 earnings has improved 0.80% over the past 60 days. UNP has an impressive earnings surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missing once, the average beat being 1.41%.
Union Pacific Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Union Pacific Corporation price-eps-surprise | Union Pacific Corporation Quote
Given this backdrop, Let’s see how things have shaped up for UNP this earnings season.
We expect Union Pacific’s performance to have been affected by soft revenues due to weak freight demand. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is currently pegged at $6.06 billion, which indicates a 0.05% rise from the year-ago reported level.
Freight revenues account for the bulk of the top line. We expect freight revenues in the first quarter of 2024 to decrease 2.36% from the fourth-quarter 2023 actuals. Given the soft freight market scenario, weakness in revenues is likely to persist, at least in the near term.
On the flip side, we expect the average fuel cost per gallon to be down 1.9% from the year-ago levels to $3.16. The company’s efforts to cut costs are likely to have boosted the bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter.
What Our Model Says
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for UNP this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here.
Union Pacific currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.61% (the Most Accurate Estimate is currently pegged at $2.54 per share, whereas the Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pegged at $2.53 per share) and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Highlights of Q4
Union Pacific's fourth-quarter 2023 earnings of $2.71 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.56. The bottom line improved 1.5% on a year-over-year basis. Operating revenues of $6.16 billion also beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.1 billion. The top line was flat on a year-over-year basis due toincreased volumes and core pricing gains, offset by reduced fuel surcharge revenues and the business mix.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are a few other stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors might want to consider as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to beat on their first-quarter 2024 earnings.
American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.51% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
AAL is scheduled to report first-quarter 2024 earnings on Apr 25. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings has declined 21.74% over the past 60 days. AAL has surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters. The average beat is 119%.
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies (WAB - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.98% and a Zacks Rank #3. WAB is scheduled to report first-quarter 2024 earnings on Apr 24.
WAB has an impressive earnings surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 6.63%.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.